讲座主题：Consuming out of Trade War: Evidence from Chinese Households

主讲嘉宾：谢红军，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授

时 间：2026年3月11日（周三）16:00

地 点：中央财经大学沙河校区13号学院楼325

主 办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

讲座内容：

This paper studies the impact of the US-China tariff war on Chinese household consumption expenditure. Exploiting variation in trading partners and products across cities, we construct city-level export exposure to US tariffs and import exposure to Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Surprisingly, import tariff exposure is associated with a persistent decline in household consumption, whereas this is not the case for export tariff exposure. While we do not find supportive evidence for the conventional consumption price channel, we provide novel evidence that import tariff exposure depresses both household income and the propensity to consume. We separately examine import tariff exposure to consumption and intermediate goods and find that the latter dominates, implying unintended consumption consequences of trade wars under global

supply chains. We also study potential distributional effects across households and spatial spillovers across cities.

嘉宾简介：

对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授，院长助理，主要研究国际贸易政策、跨国公司与直接投资、数字经济领域，已在《经济研究》《管理世界》《世界经济》《Journal of International Money and Finance》等国内外权威期刊刊文十余篇，曾获安子介国际贸易研究论文奖、商务发展研究成果奖、洪银兴经济学奖（青年）、PwC 3535年度最佳论文奖等奖项。全国高校“黄大年式教师团队”（国际贸易教师团队）成员，北京市优秀本科毕业论文指导教师。主持国家自然科学基金、教育部人文社科基金以及北京市社科基金等国家级省部级项目。多篇主笔的政策报告获国务院办公厅、教育部、中联部等政府机构采纳。兼中国数量经济学学会、中国美国经济学会理事，中国贸促会商法中心合规专家。

编辑:易彦

审核:段玉婉