讲座题目：Firm Demographics and the Great Recession

主讲人：吴沛凡

讲座时间：2017年7月5日（周三）上午10：00-11:30

讲座地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区主教113教室

主讲人简介：

吴沛凡，纽约大学Stern商学院经济学博士候选人。本科毕业于清华大学经管学院，获经济学/数学双学位。主要研究领域为企业动态、宏观经济学、金融中介。

Abstract：

The last U.S. recession stands out not only for its depth, but also for the rather slow recovery that followed it. What is less well known is that the number of productive units also dropped substantially, while it barely budged in occasion of the 1981 recession, and kept increasing during the 1991 and 2001 recessions. To the extent that the stock of establishments is a very slow–moving variable, a recession characterized by an unusually large drop in establishments will necessarily be followed by a slow recovery. In order to evaluate the quantitative significance of this mechanism, we build a general equilibrium business cycle model with heterogenous firms and endogenous entry and exit, and calibrate it so that the implied unconditional average firm–level and aggregate dynamics are consistent with the empirical evidence. Preliminary results show that recessions characterized by a sizeable drop in entry rates stand out along two dimensions: (1) The response of output in hump-shaped, meaning that output can diverge from trend for years following a negative mean–reverting shock; (2) The recovery is substantially slower.