讲座题目：The multilateral nature of bilateral trade in the age of global value chains

主讲人：祝坤福（对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院）

讲座时间：2018年5月23日（周三）中午12: 30－13：45

讲座地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区主教702

摘要： The gross trade accounting method proposed by Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Wang, Wei and Zhu (2013) that breaks up gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double counted terms. In this paper, we apply the gross trade accounting method to analyze third countries’ effect in bilateral trade. We decompose gross bilateral trade flows into different value-added and double counted components among 62 trade nations in 34 sectors from 1995 to 2014 on OECD-ICIO database, which taking processing trade into account, and discuss their relationship with GDP statistics. We not only reveal the misleading nature of bilateral balance of trade computed from gross trade statistics but also the sources of such a statistical illusion. This implies that net bilateral imports no longer be a uniform measure for import penetration as the time when final good trade dominate, since its value-added structure can vary significantly across country/sector and bilateral routes in the age of global value chains. It also implies that any bilateral trade policy change will have a third country effect that policy maker cannot overlook.

主讲人简介：祝坤福，对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院副研究员。博士毕业于中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院。主要研究内容为投入产出技术、全球价值链、贸易与能源环境分析。研究成果发表于《Journalof Comparative Economics》、《Energy Economics》、《Economic Systems Research》、《China Economic Review》、《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》等国内外领先期刊发表论文30余篇，主持完成国家自然科学基金项目多项；研究成果荣获第十三届“孙冶方经济科学奖”，第二届“张培刚发展经济学研究优秀成果奖” 和第十九届“安子介国际贸易奖”（论文一等奖）。

本讲座获得中央财经大学专题学术讲座项目资助。