主题：The Natural Rate of Interest and Structural Change

主讲嘉宾：王彬，暨南大学副教授

时间：2024年5月29日（周三）10:00-11:30

地点：中央财经大学沙河校区学院楼13号楼301

主持人：段玉婉 教授 国际经济与贸易学院副院长

评论人：刘韬 副教授

主办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院、北京高校国际商务专业虚拟教研室

内容简介：

Last three decades have witnessed two phenominal stylized facts in the developed world: the natural rate of interest is trending down; the economy undergoes structural change from agriculture and manufacture to service. Do these two trends have any theoretical relations? This paper answers this question and finds that the natural rate of interest is declining if the economy undergoes stuctural change, e.g. the change from manufacture to service happening in our world. First, we construct these two stylized facts and explore their correlation. The higher the ratio of serivice to manufacture is, the lower the natural rate of interest is. Second, we construct a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the change of final goods (consumption) share is a sufficient statistics for the declining natural rate if sectors are compliments and the growth rates of sectoral technologies are different. Once there is structural change in terms of final goods share change, the natural rate goes down. The mechanism behind the model is that the sector with lower growth rate becomes larger (higher service share in reality), and then the TFP goes down which results in the lower equilibrium interest rate.

主讲人简介：

王彬，暨南大学经济学院副教授，博士毕业于香港城市大学，研究方向为宏观经济学、国际金融以及政治经济学。论文发表于Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance等期刊。