讲座主题：Tariff Uncertainty and Trade Dynamics: Evidence from the US-China Trade War

主讲嘉宾：李乐融，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院助理教授

时 间：2025年5月26日（周一）14:00-15:30

地 点：中央财经大学沙河校区二教103

主持人：钟腾龙副教授、国际贸易系主任

点评人：刘亚琳副教授；蒋海威副教授

主 办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

致 谢：本讲座获得2025年中央财经大学专题学术讲座资助计划支持

讲座内容：

We evaluate the impact of tariff uncertainty on Chinese exports to the US during the 18-19 US-China trade war episode. Exploiting variations in tariff risk after tariff announcements across different products, we find that tariff uncertainty significantly reduces Chinese exports to the US: products with increases in tariff risk have on average 6 log points lower exports after the announcement. We also find significant stockpiling effect during the announcement period. Finally, we show that uncertainty not only discourages exports of targeted products, but also spills over to related products that are not directly targeted.

嘉宾简介：

对外经济贸易大学国际经济与贸易学院助理教授，硕士生生导师。2020年获马里兰大学经济学博士学位。2014年获北京大学国家发展研究院经济学硕士学位。论文发表在《经济学（季刊）》等。