讲座主题：Structural Change and Jobless Development

主讲嘉宾：Zoe Leiyu Xie（解蕾玉），世界银行高级经济学家

时 间：2026年7月10日（周五）10:00

地 点：中央财经大学沙河校区13号学院楼325

主 办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

讲座内容：

Benchmark models of structural transformation focus on the reallocation of employment across sectors while assuming that overall employment stays constant. We show that this assumption does not match facts for developing economies. We study a panel of 48 mostly developing economies over the period 1990--2018 and document a strong positive relationship between the share of the population employed in agriculture and the overall employment rate. That is, the early part of the development process is associated with a substantial decline in the total employment rate. Motivated by this finding, we extend a benchmark model of structural change featuring Stone-Geary preferences to allow for endogenous labor supply. We show that this model can account for the patterns we document in the data both qualitatively and quantitatively. We use a calibrated version of our model to study the employment dynamics in several developing economies and show that structural change is a quantitatively important source of employment changes during the early stages of development.

嘉宾简介：

Zoe Leiyu Xie is a Senior Economist at the Chief Economist Office for South Asia, where she contributes to analytical work for the South Asia Development Update on topics including job creation and mobility, revenue mobilization, and trade.Before joining the World Bank in 2021, Zoe worked as an Economist and Assistant Adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, where she specialized on labor market policies and public debt issues. Her research has been published in peer-reviewed journals, including the International Economics Review, Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the European Economic Review. Zoe received her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota and a Bachelor of Arts from Williams College.

编辑:易彦

审核:段玉婉