讲座主题：Trade War, the Dollar, and Welfare

主讲嘉宾：王佳欣，北京大学汇丰商学院博士

时 间：2026年10月20日（周二）15:30

地 点：中央财经大学沙河校区13号学院楼325

主 办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

讲座内容：

This paper studies how U.S. import tariffs affect Treasury convenience yields, the dollar, and welfare when U.S. government debt serves as collateral in dollar-denominated trade finance. Two forces compete. Higher tariff revenue strengthens the fiscal backing of nominal liabilities and supports dollar appreciation. However, tariffs also reduce cross-border trade and demand for dollar-denominated trade finance. As Treasuries provide collateral services in these transactions, weaker trade lowers their convenience value, depresses their prices, and contributes to dollar depreciation. In a calibrated two-country model, the trade finance channel can dominate, explaining why a tariff shock resembling the“Liberation Day”announcement can weaken the dollar. Welfare effects depend on Treasury ownership: when domestic households hold a large share of Treasuries, falling bond values erode their wealth and amplify the consumption decline. A permanent 10 percent tariff generates substantial welfare losses, while the welfare-maximizing tariff is approximately 1.8 percent in the model with long-run growth.

嘉宾简介：

王佳欣，北京大学汇丰商学院博士生，主要研究方向为国际金融、开放经济宏观经济学以及货币与财政政策，关注市场分割和金融摩擦如何影响汇率、资产价格与最优政策设计。在《中国工业经济》《金融研究》《世界经济文汇》及China Economic Review 等中英文期刊发表多篇论文，另有论文在国际学术期刊返修，工作论文入选 WESEAMS、CICM、CES 等学术会议。

编辑:易彦

审核:王立勇