讲座主题：Causal Inference from Bunching at Kinks

主讲嘉宾：王建果，中国人民大学助理教授

时 间：2026年11月4日（周三）10:50

地 点：中央财经大学沙河校区13号学院楼311

主 办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

讲座内容：

Kinked policies change marginal incentives at a threshold, and people may change theirassignment variable values around it, leading to bunching. While the literature primarily focuses on responses in assignment variable X, this paper develops a framework to study the causal effect on downstream outcomes Y, due to the kinked policy and changes in assignment variable. We exploit variation in the thresholds to identify the counterfactual conditional outcome mean E[Ycf|Xcf], and use rank preservation condition to recover the counterfactual assignment region for affected agents. Application shows that when medical reimbursement is exhausted, patients stop seeking treatment earlier, reduce outpatient visits and shift towards hospital care instead of community health centers, enriching bunching analysis.

嘉宾简介：

王建果，毕业于新加坡国立大学，获经济学博士学位，现为中国人民大学商学院助理教授。主要研究领域为国际贸易、公共经济学、数字经济，以及应用微观计量。其研究论文发表于《Review of Economics and Statistics》《Energy Economics》，并多次在美国经济学年会（AEA）、世界计量经济学会北美夏季年会（NASM）等国际学术会议上进行汇报交流。

编辑:易彦

审核:王立勇