讲座主题：Beyond Trade Sector: Measurement and Effects of the Trade War

主讲嘉宾：刘冲，北京大学经济学院长聘副教授。

时间：2023年11月30日（周四）9:00-10:30

地点：中央财经大学沙河校区二教207

主办：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

致谢: 本讲座获得2023年中央财经大学专题学术讲座资助计划支持

讲座内容：

This study develops a text-based measure of Chinese listed firms' international trade exposure (textual trade exposure or TTE) using 12,325 earnings conference transcripts from 2006 to 2019. We then employ the TTE measure to investigate the impact of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war on Chinese firms. Our measure effectively captures the financial repercussions of the trade war, as evidenced by the fact that firms with one standard deviation higher TTE experienced a 0.20% larger decline in market values around the announcement of increased tariffs. Additionally, our approach has a unique advantage in measuring the effects on domestic market firms that do not directly engage in international trade but are affected through the supply chain. Surprisingly, we find a positive effect on short-term profits and sales for high TTE firms after the trade war. Further heterogeneity analysis confirms that this positive effect is solely driven by domestic market firms. Following the trade war, export-oriented firms turned to domestic suppliers for purchasing materials and services, leading to an expansion in the scale of the latter.

嘉宾简介：

刘冲，北京大学博雅青年学者，长聘副教授，博士生导师，国家级高层次青年人才计划入选者，世界银行研究顾问。研究领域为公共经济学、发展经济学和大数据应用。近年来在Economic Journal、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《世界经济》等国内外权威期刊发表论文数十篇。主持国家社科基金重大研究专项、国家自然科学基金等课题。荣获霍英东高等院校青年教师奖、洪银兴经济学奖（青年）、商务发展研究成果奖等荣誉。